EUR/USD: Bears' New Win
EUR/USD fell to 1.1562 last week, breaking through the key support level of 1.1630, which separated the bullish trend that began in March 2020 from the bearish trend.
September turned out to be the worst month for the US stock market, allowing the dollar to strengthen its position as a safe-haven asset. In addition, the Fed made it clear at its last meeting that it may be ready to begin a soft rollback of the monetary stimulus (QE) program in November. After that, the DXY dollar index posted its best monthly gain this year.
Things could have changed last Thursday. The US ended its fiscal year on September 30, and as of October 01, the country must live under a new budget, which is still not there. If President Biden had not signed legislation before midnight to increase the national debt limit, it would have threatened not only with the suspension of U.S. government, but also with a potential default. However, Biden approved lifting the limit at the very last moment, but only until December 3.
Amid the intrigue with government debt, the market hardly reacted to the contradictory US macro statistics, although the news from the labour market was not the most gratifying. For example, initial applications for unemployment benefits rose from 351,000 to 362,000, against the forecast decline to 335,000. The PMI index of Chicago in September fell from 66.8 to 64.7 points (against the forecast of 65 points). But the US GDP for the Q2 grew by 6.7% and turned out to be better than the forecast by 0.1%.
Governors of Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic remained cautious last week, leaving their escape routes. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking to members of the Senate, said once again that the acceleration of inflation should be replaced by its slowdown. The strong rise in prices, he said, is “driven by supply chain problems” that his department cannot control.
Almost the same statement was made by ECB Governor Christine Lagarde on Tuesday 28 September. She warned market participants against overreacting to the acceleration of inflation in the Eurozone, considering the phenomenon a temporary factor.
Consumer inflation rose 3.4% in September, the highest level in 13 years, according to Eurostat data. As for inflation in Germany, the main locomotive of the EU, it peaked in 29 years at 4.1%. According to preliminary forecasts, inflation in the Eurozone will approach 4% in Q4 and remain above 2% in the first half of 2022. According to analysts, such an increase is most likely caused by a sharp jump in energy prices.
These statistics and the fact that some market participants decided to close short EUR/USD positions at the end of the US fiscal year, recording gains, helped the common European currency a little, and the pair, having fought back from the local bottom, ended the five-day run at 1.1595.
As for the long-term forecast, many experts believe that the euro has no particular prospects. Some even believe that the pair will return to the spring 2020 lows by the end of next year. As for the near future forecast, 50% of analysts are in favor of a further decline in the pair. They are supported by 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on D1 (15% give signals that the pair is oversold). 20% vote for the sideways trend, and the remaining 30% of experts vote for the growth of the pair.
Support levels are 1.1560, 1.1500 and 1.1450. Resistance levels are 1.1685 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910.
Of the events to come, note the release of the ISM PMI in the US services sector on Tuesday October 05. Eurozone retail sales will be available on the following day, October 06. The ADP U.S. private employment report will also be released on that day, and another piece of data from the American labor market will arrive on Friday, October 08, including such an important indicator as the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP).
GBP/USD: Bank of England vs US Fed
Last week ended with a bearish win for the GBP/USD pair as well. After starting at 1.3670 and losing 260 points, it bottomed at 1.3410 on Wednesday September 29. This was followed by a fairly powerful rebound and a finish at 1.3545.
Due to the US government debt situation, the market hardly paid attention to the encouraging macro statistics from the UK. But it turned out to be significantly better than forecast. Not only has the GDP drop in the Q1 2021 been revised down from minus 6.1% to 4.8%, but, with a forecast of minus 1.5%, it was 5.5% in Q2.
However, according to a number of experts, the growth of the pound at the end of the week is only indirectly related to these impressive positive statistics. The main reason is that the British currency has been strongly oversold: it has lost about 500 pips to the dollar since mid-September.
At the moment, 70% of experts predict that the pair will go south again to test support in the 1.3400 zone. The remaining 30% have taken a neutral position. As for technical analysis, it still sides with the bears as well: 85% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1 are colored red.
It should be noted that when we move to the forecast before the year end, the picture abruptly changes to the opposite: 70% of analysts already say that the GBP/USD pair will return to the 1.3900- 1.4000 zone. Moreover, a third of these 70% does not rule out that it can even reach the May-June highs of 1.4200-1.4250.
The nearest resistances along the way are 1.3600, 1.3690, 1.3765, 1.3810. Supports are in zones 1.3400, 1.3350 and 1.3185.
According to Citibank experts, the pound is currently supported by the following factors. First, there is a decrease in the number of hospitalizations in the UK due to COVID-19. UK assets are attractive both in terms of valuation and in terms of economic normalization after the pandemic. Secondly, it is a decrease in political risks associated with the negotiations between the EU and the UK on the Northern Ireland Protocol and the rejection of the referendum on Scottish independence. And of course, this is the decision of the Bank of England on a possible increase in the key interest rate to 0.25% in May 2022 and to 0.50% in December. Such prospects for UK monetary policy, according to analysts at Citibank, are “well placed to confront Fed policy.”
USD/JPY: 112.00 Again
As predicted by most experts (60%), the USD/JPY pair managed to climb to 112.00 after the Fed's QE cut announcement, and even slightly higher, recording a high at 112.07. The forecast went on to say that it was unlikely to gain a foothold above this horizon. This is exactly what happened. Amid a drop in US government bond yields from 1.567% to 1.474% and a weaker dollar, the yen managed to recoup much of the losses at the end of the week and ended the trading session at 111.02.
Recall that unlike other central banks in developed countries, the Bank of Japan remains committed to ultra-soft monetary policy and negative interest rates. Therefore, the yen is still of interest not as a tool for making money, but as a safe haven currency.
At the moment, 50% of experts expect the pair to make another attempt to consolidate above the 112.00 horizon. 25% of analysts are neutral, and another 25% expect the pair to fall.
Support levels are unchanged: 110.45, 110.15, 109.60, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The dream of the bears (it seems to be already impossible) is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are 111.00 and 111.65.
It should be noted that the USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. On this basis, the absolute majority of analysts believe that after the failed storm of 112.00, the pair will return to this trading range, where it will continue to move.
CRYPTOCURRENCIES: "Goodbye Bears"
According to statistics from the 99Bitcoins website, digital gold was predicted to die 37 times in 2021. Interestingly, this amount is 2.65 times higher than in 2020, during which BTC “passed away” only 14 times.
99Bitcoins has acted as the official repository for all bitcoin obituaries since 2010, with precise criteria for selecting such publications. The last registered obituary dates from September 21, 2021 and was written by renowned economist Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins University, who stated that bitcoin is a highly speculative zero-value asset.
Another obituary may soon be registered, this one authored by entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki. The other day, this best-selling author of “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” projected a “giant stock market collapse” due in October. The same fate awaits gold, silver and bitcoin, he said. The main reason for Kiyosaki's upcoming collapse is the Fed, which has started to sell too many Treasury bonds.
Another unhappy forecast was given by an analyst under the nickname PlanB, the author of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. This model predicts the value of bitcoin based on the ratio of the asset's total available supply and its annual increase. Calculations by PlanB have recently showed that the bitcoin rate will exceed $100,000 at the end of this year. And now things have changed for the worse: according to the analyst, the price of the flagship coin could drop to $30,000 instead of rising.
Indeed, bitcoin dynamics did not bode well for the crypto market in September, with the BTC/USD pair falling to $39,666. However, the first day of October changed everything: bitcoin flew up, rising to $48,250. We have repeatedly noted the correlation between the stock and crypto markets, which is based on the risk appetite of investors. This time, too, the rise in the price of digital assets occurred in parallel with the rise of stock indices such as the S&P500 and Dow Jones.
An additional impetus for bitcoin could have been given by a surge in the volume of cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges. According to analyst Joseph Edwards of London-based firm Enigma Securities, derivatives trading often affects BTC spot prices. Another impetus may have been the decision by Iranian authorities to lift the ban on cryptocurrency mining.
Famous trader hailed the rise of the major cryptocurrency, exclaiming: “Goodbye bears “, and pointed to the move of leading altcoins into the green zone.
Another trader, billionaire Steven A. Cohen, owner of hedge fund SAC Capital Advisors, saw a perfect scenario for bitcoin that could steer it into future rallies. Cohen believes that BTC may still decline, while it is important its price doesn't fall below the 20-week simple moving average (SMA). This will be the key to creating bullish momentum that will push the the coin up to $64,000.
The 20-week SMA, coupled with the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), is what Cowen calls the "bull market support band." In his view, it is crucial for bitcoin to stay above this band, as history shows that BTC tends to break through the first time it is retested.
The total crypto market capitalization rose again above the psychologically important threshold of $2.0 trillion on October 01 and stands at $2.06 trillion ($1.84 trillion a week ago). But the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the Fear zone at 27 points.
And in conclusion, another tip in our joke crypto life hacks column. So what does it take to make money on cryptocurrencies? It turns out it's all about getting a hamster and giving it a chance to... trade. Over the past three months, the value of the portfolio of Mr. Goxx - a crypto trader hamster on the Twitch platform - has increased by 30%. Over the same time, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fund assets fell 2%.
The hamster's owner built a special cage for it in June 2021, equipped with optical sensors that are connected to the Arduino Nano controller. Turning the running wheel, Mr. Goxx "selects" a specific cryptocurrency for trading. The program will sell the coin when the rodent runs through the left tunnel and will buy it if it passes through the right one.
The talented hamster managed to outperform not only Berkshire Hathaway, but also the S&P 500 (+6% over the same period) and NASDAQ 100 (+12%), as well as bitcoin itself (+23%).
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.