Buying AUDUSD with 0.66300 target

Inflation in Australia persists strongly, with the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerating from 1.9% in June to 2.8% in July. Meanwhile, the Q2 figure rose 0.7% over three months and 2.1% from a year earlier. This trend, keeping inflation beyond the target range (2–3%), explains the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) unwillingness to lower interest rates while it prudently sustains economic growth to avoid a new surge in prices.

Despite global uncertainties, the Australian GDP has shown notable resilience, with the manufacturing PMI at 53.0 and the services PMI at 55.8 in August, both indicating expansion. 

This economic strength is also reflected in June's 1.2% retail sales rise, July's A$7.3 billion trade surplus, and increased business investment. GDP figures were also positive, hiking 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year. The labor market, however, sends a more mixed signal: the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% in August, despite a 5,400 decline in total employment.

The RBA's recent 25-basis-point cut brought the key rate down to 3.60%, accompanied by a revised growth forecast for 2025. The central bank's governor has ruled out considering deeper reductions for the time being, stressing a data-dependent approach. Meeting minutes reinforced that any further labor market weakness could accelerate easing, while its stable growth would engender more gradual changes.

This mirrors the current situation with the US dollar, where the Federal Reserve's steady, moderately tight stance has led to a short-term equilibrium for AUDUSD, confining it to a narrow flat range. The pair is now making another attempt to hit the 0.66300 level.

The overall recommendation is to buy AUDUSD. Profits are taken at 0.66300. Stop loss is set at 0.65500.

The volume of your open position should be calculated so that the potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) does not exceed 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow opening a position of this size, it is better to avoid entering the market on this signal and wait for other trade options that meet low-risk criteria.