AUDUSD rises to new highs within ascending channel

The AUDUSD pair continues to progress within the ascending channel established two weeks ago on the hourly (H1) chart. Prices are now approaching its lower boundary, from which a new upward impulse may develop. The immediate target for buyers is last November's high, just below the 0.669 level. Breaching this resistance could lead to testing the channel’s upper limit and a potential breakout.

Although the MACD indicator has begun to turn downward, creating risks for long positions, the RSI remains in neutral territory (near 50) and shows no signs of a trend reversal. The ongoing upward momentum is supported by the 50-day moving average (EMA 50), which has contained all declines over the past week. The EMA 100 and the 0.6635 level provide additional support, together forming a significant barrier against further selling pressure.

According to Bloomberg, hedge funds maintain a bullish outlook on the Australian dollar even as it touches annual highs. This optimism is bolstered by steady GDP growth, which alleviates pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to aggressively cut interest rates. Today, RBA official Sarah Hunter made an observation during her speech. She said there has been a slowdown in the pace of disinflation. In this regard, monetary policy could remain unchanged on September 30.

Meanwhile, anticipation is building for the Federal Reserve to cut rates not only at the upcoming meeting but also in October and December. Analysts at Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank support this view. The chances of monetary easing increased after the US Senate confirmed Stephen Miran to the Board of Governors. Miran, whom President Donald Trump advocated for, is likely to bring a more dovish perspective to the Fed's leadership.

The following trading strategy may come into play:

Buy AUDUSD at or above 0.665. Take profit: 0.669. Stop loss: 0.6635.