Buying AUDUSD with bets on stronger Australian dollar

The AUDUSD pair resumed its uptrend after completing a recent corrective phase. Fueled by the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy decision, the pair climbed to 0.65990, trading near Tuesday's daily peak of 0.66075 and signaling solid bullish momentum that appears poised to extend in the coming sessions.

Such a positive surge is supported by technical indicators, with the RSI rising from the neutral zone of 48. Positioned well below overbought territory, this leaves substantial room for additional upside without immediate correction concerns. The Chaikin Oscillator also confirms that buyers are dominant by displaying an ascending trajectory, which signals clear capital inflow and sustained bullish pressure in the market.

Fundamentally, the RBA strengthened the Aussie by keeping its borrowing costs at 3.60% and adopting a cautiously hawkish stance, suggesting that third-quarter (Q3) inflation could exceed expectations. This made investors believe there's a 40% chance of a rate cut in November, down from 50%. And that's giving the national currency some extra support. Meanwhile, broad US dollar weakness is creating a favorable tailwind. Uncertainty stemming from a potential American government shutdown and anticipated delays in key employment data releases are weighing on the greenback, thus enhancing the positive backdrop for AUDUSD.

A key resistance stays around September's high at 0.66850—a zone likely to reject price advances without new, substantial catalysts. With the current uptrend and signs from oscillators that it will continue, this level seems to be tested soon. On the downside, the key support to watch is 0.65200, which aligns with the lows of the previous correction. A decisive break below it would indicate that bullish momentum has exhausted itself.

Pay attention to the trading strategy outlined below:

Buy AUDUSD at the current price. Take profit is set at 0.66620, a level near September's high. Stop loss is placed at 0.65390, slightly above the support corresponding to the bottom of this month's correction.

The forecast is relevant from September 30 till October 7, 2025.