The AUDUSD currency pair keeps trading downward. Today’s early session confirms the ongoing decline from the September 17 local high. The price remains under pressure from escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, which boost market volatility and increase capital flows into safe-haven assets. This strengthens the US dollar’s position against its Australian counterpart.
Investor concerns partially eased on Monday, but the stock and currency markets continue to factor in risks of potential monetary tightening and probable restrictions on rare earth metal exports from China. This uncertainty keeps traders vigilant and lowers demand for risky assets such as the Australian dollar.
However, the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) last meeting, released on Tuesday, could provide some support for the Aussie. In September, the regulator held an interest rate at the same level of 3.6% due to persistent inflation risks and modest household spending. Thus, there are no signals of an imminent rate cut, which would be positive news for AUD under typical circumstances. Given market expectations of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the neutral stance of the RBA, the Australian currency may regain some of its losses.
From a technical perspective, AUDUSD continues to move downward, but the pair may find significant support closer to the 0.64500 level. The Chaikin Oscillator remains in the negative zone, confirming capital outflows, while the Stochastic Oscillator is now approaching overbought territory, signaling a probable rebound. In case of consolidation above 0.64500 combined with favorable fundamentals, a correction toward 0.65250 might occur, with 0.66000 as a subsequent target.
Consider the following trading strategy:
Buy when AUDUSD approaches 0.64500. Set Take profit at 0.66000 and Stop loss at 0.64150.
This forecast is valid from October 14 to October 21, 2025.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
