Selling AUDUSD in short term

The hourly chart shows that the AUDUSD pair has been moving within a bearish equidistant channel since late January. Quotes are now hovering close to the upper limit of 0.70200, with the nearest downside target at 0.69410. If the price breaches the round level of 0.70000, a trend reversal within the current channel will be confirmed.

However, short-term selling under these circumstances is considered risky, as several fundamental factors hint at the pair’s future growth.

RBA’s hawkish policy stance. Unlike many other regulators, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) started 2026 with a 25-basis-point rate hike on February 3, lifting borrowing costs to 3.85%—the first increase since November 2023. This move was driven by stubborn inflation figures, which were beyond the pale (3.8%) by the end of 2025. Another factor was the labor market. It remains overheated, with extremely low unemployment. These factors have prompted the market to price in another rate hike up to 4.10% in May. According to the RBA’s own forecast consensus, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could stay elevated (above the 2%–3% range) until early 2027.

Cooling US economy. On the flip side, signs of a cooling US economy are weighing on the American dollar. January showed the worst layoff numbers since 2009. The private sector added a modest 22,000 jobs, compared to 144,000 last year. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) holds interest rates in the 3.50%–3.75% range, but its rhetoric has turned progressively dovish. US officials like Mary Daly have expressed openness to one or two cuts this year to support employment.

The increasing monetary policy divergence between the United States and Australia makes the Aussie a more attractive asset for investors. Therefore, any selling of AUDUSD here would constitute a purely short-term, technically-driven trade.

The overall recommendation is to sell AUDUSD if the 0.70000 level is breached. Profits should be taken at 0.69410. Stop Loss could be set at 0.70700.

The volume of the open position should be calculated so that the potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) does not exceed 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow opening a position of this size, it is better to avoid entering the market on this signal and wait for other trade options that meet low-risk criteria.