The outlook for AUDUSD between April 7 and April 14, 2026, appears to be moderately bearish, with periodic attempts to consolidate. Although the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains a hawkish tone, geopolitical uncertainty continues to call the shots.
What to watch in the coming days:
RBA interest rate expectations. There are two ways: the regulator could leave borrowing costs unchanged at 4.10% or raise them to 4.35%. Investors are currently pricing in a 55% chance of the second scenario taking place in May due to sticky inflation (3.8% year-on-year) and a resilient labor market. Any hints at monetary tightening will help keep the Aussie afloat.
US macroeconomic data. The ISM Services PMI for March came in below expectations (54.0 versus 55.0), temporarily draining some strength from the greenback. However, the Prices Paid Index surged to 70.7, the highest level since 2022. Such figures are now fueling inflation fears in the United States and compelling the Federal Reserve (Fed) to stay hawkish. The Strait of Hormuz issue remains the most sensitive of all. Washington’s ultimatum to Iran sets the stage for a paralyzing energy shock. Once the situation escalates, investors tend to turn their attention to the US dollar as a reliable safe haven, leaving the riskier Aussie unsupported.
The overall recommendation is to sell AUDUSD. Profits should be taken at 0.6830. Stop Loss could be set at 0.6970.
The volume of the open position should be calculated so that the potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) does not exceed 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow opening a position of this size, it is better to avoid entering the market on this signal and wait for other trade options that meet low-risk criteria.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
