Over the next couple of days (June 15–16, 2026), the Aussie is likely to show modest swings, as it attempts to claw its way back toward the 0.7075–0.7100 zone. But let's be real—the mood is guarded, and all eyes are locked on Tuesday's key event: the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting.
As for what to expect from the regulator, the market is dead certain (almost 100%) that interest rates will stay parked at 4.35%. However, the real drama won't be the decision itself; it is all about the language. If the central bank talks tough and keeps its hawkish guard up, this could hand the Australian dollar a welcome boost.
On top of that, the US‑Iran peace deal is quietly working in the Aussie's favor. By dulling demand for the safe‑haven greenback, the agreement is giving risk‑loving assets a green light.
Now, let's look at the positioning picture. The latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report shows that big speculators have trimmed their net long AUD positions by a sharp 30%, down to 41,812 contracts. What does this mean? It is a flashing yellow light: without fresh catalysts, the market could be sitting on a pile of long liquidation waiting to happen. On a brighter note, June contracts are hovering near 0.7044, a sign that things are settling down after the recent chaos. Retail traders are playing it safe, while the pair itself is camped above the key 0.7000 support—the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, which many view as a prime accumulation zone.
So, where do we go from here? It all hinges on the RBA's statement. A hawkish hold could launch AUDUSD toward 0.7100 and beyond. On the flip side, if the central bank even hints at future monetary easing, watch out: the pair could plummet right back down to the 0.7000 floor.
The ultimate recommendation is to buy AUDUSD, assuming the tight policy stance remains in place at tomorrow's RBA meeting. Lock in profits at 0.7100. Place Stop Loss at 0.7060.
Calculate your open position so that a potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) is limited to 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow you to enter a position of this size, it is better to skip the trade and wait for other market signals that meet low-risk criteria.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
