On April 22, the AUDUSD currency pair pulled back from the resistance level of 0.64000, unable to consolidate above it. The next daily candle tested the level, but also pulled back and closed lower than the previous candle. There is a high probability of a corrective downward move to 0.63000, the level of the 50-day exponential moving average. 0.62100 may be the next support level.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is down to 50, which is signalling a potential shift to a bearish trend. The RSI on the 4-hour chart is already displaying that market participants are set to open short positions.
The indicator of convergence and divergence of moving averages (MACD) is below zero on the hourly chart. The MACD indicator has smoothly descended to zero on the 4-hour chart and is ready to cross it in the next 2–3 candles. The daily MACD slowed sharply, ready to get on the way to zero.
US manufacturing and service PMIs confirm some recovery in the country’s economy. The manufacturing PMI reached 50.7, above the forecast, indicating that the US manufacturing sector is expanding. The service PMI fell to 51.4, below the expectations, but this reading still means the sector is growing.
While addressing 145% tariffs on Chinese imports, US President Donald Trump expressed the intention to cut them significantly. In addition, Trump claimed he was not going to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell before his term ends next year. The statement boosted investor hopes for a dollar recovery.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its base rate steady at 4.10% in early April. RBA governor Michele Bullock pointed to steady inflation and a tight labor market as reasons to keep rates unchanged. Markets are currently pricing in a 70% chance of a rate cut at the RBA meeting in May.
The following trading strategy may be suggested: selling at the current price with Take Profit at 0.63000 and Stop Loss at 0.64300.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
