Buying AUDUSD with 0.65280 target amid pullback to support

On Tuesday, the AUDUSD currency pair opened at the 0.65065 level but then declined due to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) widely anticipated decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.60%. The meeting results align with projections from 40 economists surveyed by Reuters. At the moment of writing this forecast, the opening price stands at 0.64932.

Australia’s inflation rate declined to 2.1% year-on-year, moving closer to the RBA target range. Unemployment reached 4.3%—the highest in 3.5 years. These data explained the central bank’s decision to cut rates. Even though the market expected this move from the regulator, it wasn’t fully prepared. So, the Australian dollar dropped after the release. A deteriorating economic outlook with lower GDP estimates for 2025 exacerbates the situation.

Traders are now focused on the upcoming inflation report from the United States. The index could significantly impact market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary decision at its next meeting. The likelihood of a rate cut on September 17 is now estimated at 89%. However, these projections have limited influence. If the US CPI rises no more than 0.3% month-on-month, its impact on the American dollar may be negligible. In case of a more sharp increase in inflation, the US currency could strengthen, reducing the chances of a September rate cut.

AUDUSD is currently trending down. On the H4 timeframe, the RSI (14) stands at 35, showing that the pair has not entered oversold territory. At the same time, the indicator remains below 50, suggesting the bearish trend persists. The RSI continues to decline, confirming weak buying potential.

Despite this technical picture, purchasing the Australian dollar is still a favorable trading strategy. The RBA decision has already been priced in, eliminating a key negative factor for AUD. Further downside may be limited. On the technical side, the pair has not dropped below the August support level at 0.64955, remaining close to provide traders with an excellent buying opportunity.

The following trading plan is currently recommended:

Buying AUDUSD during AUD sell-off, with the target at 0.65280 and Stop Loss at 0.64862.

This forecast remains valid from August 12 to August 19, 2025.