Brent prices decline due to uncertain demand outlook

Brent crude opened at $67.50 per barrel today. The price declined during early trading due to mixed macroeconomic and geopolitical data.

In recent days, market dynamics have primarily been driven by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to cut interest rates. This step initially supported risky assets but was later reassessed by traders with an eye on strong doubts regarding oil demand in the largest economies.

Brent prices remained under pressure on signs of weaker consumption in the United States, a leader in this sector. Diesel distillate inventories rose by 4 million barrels, although an increase of only 1 million was expected. This reinforced concerns over domestic demand. Although overall oil stocks fell by 9.3 million barrels because of record export volumes, distillates have the most significant impact on the market.

However, ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe continue to add a risk premium, especially amid refinery facility challenges. But these factors are partially offset by the actions of the US administration. President Trump's public statements about his preference for lower oil prices signal to the market that Washington is not interested in a supply deficit, which could push quotes higher. This creates a powerful counterargument to any bullish sentiment.

From a technical perspective, Brent is now moving sideways, with small signs of correction. The Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) is in neutral territory near 67–70, indicating that there are neither strong overbought conditions nor a clear bearish momentum, leaving room for further growth. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) is showing negative dynamics, signaling reduced buyer interest amid moderate trading volumes. The RSI (14) is consolidating close to 50, confirming an equilibrium between buyers and sellers, with no overbought or oversold conditions, pointing to a probable continuation of the sideways trend.

Pay attention to the following trading plan:

Sell Brent crude at the current price. Set Take profit at $65.70. Place Stop loss at $68.50.

This forecast remains valid from September 19 to September 26, 2025.