Selling Brent with $63.5 per barrel in sight

The latest decline in oil prices was triggered by the International Energy Agency's (IEA) recent forecast. The organization continues to harbor a rather pessimistic outlook regarding global demand, both for the present and forthcoming years. According to the agency, the world is moving toward a supply surplus. On top of that, markets anticipate a big jump in Saudi Arabia's crude exports this month because of higher production and lower domestic demand following the peak summer months. These bearish factors stand in stark juxtaposition to OPEC's more optimistic monthly report, which firmly retains its forecast for global oil demand to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and by 1.4 million bpd in 2026. This bullish assessment contrasts sharply with the IEA's projection of a much slower uptick at just 0.7 million bpd. The agency believes global oil supplies will build up faster than expected this year, potentially leading to a surplus in 2026.

Further contributing to the negative sentiment are data showing ample US inventories, the potential for expanded exports from Saudi Arabia, and a reduction in Russian product shipments that could free up more crude for the global market. In addition, China is set to accumulate oil reserves at an accelerated pace throughout 2025 and beyond.

Technically, the daily Brent chart shows the price testing key support levels that have held since mid-summer, with the overall pattern indicating a potential for further downward movement.

The final recommendation is to sell Brent oil from the $68.70 level. Profits are taken at $63.50. Stop loss is set at $70.45.

The volume of your open position should be calculated so that the potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) does not exceed 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow opening a position of this size, it is better to avoid entering the market on this signal and wait for other trade options that meet low-risk criteria.