Today, Brent crude fell to $61 per barrel, showing only modest gains during morning trading. The market is under significant pressure due to worries over a growing global energy surplus, driven by slowing economies in key consumer nations like the United States and China. These concerns are backed by recent macroeconomic data and pessimistic forecasts from international financial institutions.
On top of that, the American President revealed plans to hold talks with his Russian counterpart in order to keep things stable in Eastern Europe. This news caused a dip in market sentiment. Investors perceived it as a sign that Russia would likely ramp up its hydrocarbon deliveries. However, given the track record of past discussions between the two powers, a swift resolution to supply issues and a significant change in the energy balance are still extremely doubtful.
Nevertheless, the fundamentals suggest the potential for a price recovery. US oil stockpiles are now rising more slowly than anticipated, and domestic refinery activity continues to be strong. Meanwhile, Indian processing plants are cutting back on buying Russian crude, a development that may boost demand for alternative grades.
The technical outlook also reveals there may be more gains to be made. Although the market has trended downward since the October 9 peak, current dynamics show signs of selling exhaustion and a new correction coming into play. The Stochastic Indicator (5, 3, 3) supports this view, as it is in oversold territory, with %K at 19, showing that it is primed for a reversal. Similarly, the Chaikin Oscillator, though still negative, is turning upward, signaling reduced selling pressure and a potential market rebound.
Consider the trading plan down below:
Buy Brent crude when it rebounds from $60.00. Take profit: $62.90. Stop loss: $59.60.
This forecast is relevant between October 17 and October 24, 2025.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
