Brent crude is trying to rally this week, but it's running into the same old problem: the $65–$66 ceiling. Just like in October, buyers don't have the muscle to punch through a thick layer of resistance. This includes not one, but two downtrend lines from the June and July highs, combined with the overhead pressure from the 50- and 100-day moving averages. If the bulls call it quits, traders will see a pullback toward $61.
The technicals confirm that sellers are still in the driver's seat. The RSI Oscillator turned lower before even touching overbought territory. Concurrently, the MACD Indicator tried to cross back into positive ground but failed to spark any real buying interest for market players to go long. On the daily chart, the pattern of lower highs over the past three weeks is clear. Until this trend breaks, a move down to $61 looks more and more likely.
The big story this week came from the trio of key oil offices—OPEC, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the Energy Information Administration (EIA)—in their monthly reports. Typically, OPEC is the cheerleader in its forecasts while others are the cautious ones. However, this time, they flipped the script.
The IEA and EIA have been predicting a tidal wave of oil for 2026, and the petroleum organisation has finally conceded the point. Their new report acknowledges the growing potential for a supply glut next year, meaning that the market will tip into surplus in the first quarter (Q1), even with OPEC+ production levels holding steady. This fundamentally caps the chance for a major fuel rally. In such an environment, any significant price bounce should be viewed as a selling opportunity.
For your trading, consider the following strategy:
Sell Brent crude in the $63–$65 range. Take profit: $61. Stop loss: $66.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
