Brent crude is heading downward ahead of OPEC meeting

Brent prices remain under significant pressure due to global oversupply. It was recently reported that US President Donald Trump did not discuss the issue of China’s oil deliveries from Russia with the Asian country’s leader, Xi Jinping. So, it seems that America is not prepared to force key buyers to abandon Russian fuel, thereby negating a potential reduction in exports caused by newly imposed sanctions.

These restrictions have had a short-lived and rather limited impact on the market, given that China and India—major buyers—have already found ways to adapt. At the same time, leading energy-exporting nations are increasing output, causing a persistent oil surplus. At the upcoming OPEC meeting on November 1, its members will raise the issue of boosting production in December. This would put additional pressure on crude prices in a situation where supply exceeds demand.

Total volumes in the oil market are showing record growth. Saudi Arabia's exports hit a six-month high, while US production reached a new historical peak. In addition, December fuel supplies from the North Sea are expected to rise to the maximum in over eight years. These factors completely offset any potential losses from restrictions against Russian companies and provide a solid foundation for increasing global reserves, keeping fuel prices under constant pressure.

From a technical standpoint, quotes are now undergoing a consolidation phase, following their recent correction from the October 24 local high. The Stochastic Oscillator points to a weaker upward momentum. The indicator is in the lower area of neutral territory, with %K at 30 and %D at 48, heading toward the oversold zone. This creates an opportunity for a short-term rebound in the near future. Meanwhile, the Chaikin Oscillator (3, 10), although still positive, is currently declining from its October 23 peak. This is a clear signal of a slowing upward impulse and shrinking trading volumes. This technical picture fits into the overall situation in the oil market.

Consider the strategy presented below:

Sell Brent at the current price ($63.80), with Take profit 1 at $62.30, Take profit 2 at $61.30, and Stop loss at $65.55.

The forecast can be referred to from October 31 to November 7, 2025.