Brent crude prices are making modest attempts at recovery, hovering around $63.80 per barrel, but their upside potential remains limited. The de-escalation of geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the resumption of peace negotiations in the region have a negative impact on the oil market. Recent statements from officials keep hopes up for sanctions relief against Russian energy companies. This would increase global supply levels, intensify the surplus issue, and weigh on crude prices.
While a swift agreement is far from certain, the mere fact of active diplomatic efforts has already neutralized the geopolitical risk premium that previously supported quotes. Even if the parties split the difference, additional Russian volumes won’t hit the market immediately, as rebuilding logistics chains and buyer confidence will take time. However, this cloud of doubt hangs over Brent prices as a strong bearish signal, precluding any sustained movement.
The fundamental picture is further exacerbated by increasing signs of a supply glut. JPMorgan forecasts a record surplus of 2.8 billion barrels per day (bpd) next year due to rising US inventories and OPEC+ plans to maintain current production levels. At the upcoming meeting on Sunday, the alliance is expected to confirm its earlier decision to suspend further output increases rather than implement supply cuts, signaling its willingness to accept lower crude prices in the battle to retain market share.
From a technical perspective, Brent’s recent rally has faced resistance near the middle Bollinger Band ($63.8). Both Stochastic and Chaikin Oscillators confirm the current bullish momentum, but overwhelming geopolitical uncertainty and global oversupply weaken these signals.
Keep in mind the following trading strategy:
Sell Brent crude at the current price. Place Take profit at $62.15 and Stop loss at $64.60.
This forecast remains relevant from November 28 to December 5, 2025.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
