The near- and medium-term outlook for Brent crude is now quite pessimistic due to persistently increasing global supply and slowing demand.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has slightly increased the average oil price forecast for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025 from $62 to $62.5 per barrel. Other experts are more doom and gloom, predicting the fall to $60.88 by the end of the current quarter.
The main factors of such a decline in Brent prices are oversupply and weak demand. OPEC+ members and other major producers like the United States, Canada, and Brazil keep increasing their output levels, breaking a fragile balance in the global market. In addition, a slowdown in the world’s economic growth limits consumption of commodities.
Major banks’ and analytical agencies’ consensus forecast projects further decline in prices in 2026. Several opinions are presented below:
The World Bank forecasts the average oil cost of $60 per barrel next year;
Goldman Sachs predicts it to drop to $56, fearing a sudden nosedive to $40;
The EIA expects around $55 in 2026;
JPMorgan anticipates $58 per barrel.
Global crude reserves are expected to increase through next year, hanging like a big dark cloud above prices. Therefore, Brent is forecast to drop in coming months and move in a downtrend in 2026.
Technically, it is better to sell crude from the nearest resistance level of $64.4.
So, the overall recommendation is to sell Brent oil from $64.4. Profits should be taken at the level of $62.9. Stop Loss could be set at $65.2.
The volume of the open position should be calculated so that the potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) does not exceed 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow opening a position of this size, it is better to avoid entering the market on this signal and wait for other trade options that meet low-risk criteria.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
