Brent crude to remain within $62.5–$65 range

Brent crude has been trading within the $62.5–$65 range for the past month and a half. The price has not attempted to retest the upper boundary of this channel in over two weeks. A downtrend is gaining momentum, pushing quotes closer to the $62.5 support level, though there are no signs of an imminent breakdown. However, traders may view it as a benchmark for profit-taking on their short positions. Selling fuel between $63.5 and $64.5 appears to be an interesting trading strategy.

From a technical perspective, the RSI Indicator remains in neutral territory on the daily Brent chart, suggesting the current price range is sustainable. The Stochastic Oscillator, in turn, issued a sell signal when quotes tried to break out of the downtrend from July highs. However, the price is facing other hurdles, including the 50- and 100-day moving averages, along with the upper Bollinger Band. Without fundamental support, overcoming these technical barriers will be difficult.

Meanwhile, the supply-demand imbalance issue is only exacerbating with decreasing oil consumption. At the same time, Saudi Arabia has cut its export prices for Asian buyers to the lowest level since January 2021. Although Nigeria and Iraq did not manage to increase production in November, other OPEC+ members continue to boost output. Keeping quotas unchanged in the first quarter of 2026 will moderate the surplus, but even in this case, the oil glut risks becoming a long-term issue.

The OPEC+ intention to regain its lost market share, despite a significant drop in prices, now has one more confirmation. The alliance has announced a reassessment of its member countries' output capacities between January and September 2026. It is a well-known fact that Saudi Arabia and the UAE produce significantly less fuel than they could if their equipment were fully operating. Iraq and Kuwait have also publicly announced their plans to ramp up oil extraction. They will probably push for higher quotas following the audit.

Keep in mind the following trading strategy:

Sell Brent crude between $63.5 and $64.5. Place Take profit at $62.5 and Stop loss at $65.