From December 8 till 15, 2025, the outlook for Brent crude is on shaky ground, leaning toward the bearish side, with prices likely stuck in a rut between $62 and $66 per barrel. As a result, the market is feeling the heat from swelling inventories and a growing supply glut.
The elephant in the room, however, is an impending stockpile surplus. Major players outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), including the US, Brazil, and Canada, are now turning up the taps. Meanwhile, the alliance has slowly been letting off the brakes by phasing out its voluntary production cuts since April, tipping the scales toward oversupply. Their statements about keeping the market balanced don't change the fact that their plan to add more oil is baked into forecasts. Right now, traders are keeping a close eye on $60 per barrel as a make-or-break support, both psychologically and technically.
Demand isn't stagnant, but it's lagging behind the supply surge, which continues to weigh heavily on prices. Inventory data paints a bleak picture, set to rise non-stop into 2026, a clear signal that bears have the upper hand. The fact that contracts for February and March are trading at a slight discount to current prices—a condition called contango—is telltale that investors see more pain ahead.
Trading volumes are still nothing to sneeze at, and high open interest shows that institutional investors haven't left the table. Meanwhile, the options market is telling: maximum pain levels for Brent-linked funds like BNO are set low ($28 per share, which translates to an oil price taking a nosedive to today's level) in December, painting a clear picture of traders bracing for an impact and hedging their bets against a fall or banking on one outright.
The overall mood is cautious and rather bearish. The general consensus from heavyweights (EIA, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs) implies Brent averaging out between $60 and $68 this quarter. Everyone agrees the downtrend is here to stay, with further declines expected next year.
The ultimate recommendation is to sell Brent crude. Lock in profits at $61.75. Place Stop Loss at $66.30.
Always size the position so that your potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss) is no more than 1% of your account balance. If you can't open a position that meets such risk criteria, it's safer to skip this trade and wait for a better, lower-risk opportunity.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
