The technical picture for Brent crude is currently pointing toward a move back to the $65.5 resistance, a key zone it has recently broken. This isn't just a chart pattern—it's a signal that is gaining credibility from an increasingly tough fundamental reality.
In fact, the oil market is caught in a classic squeeze: there is too much oil, and not enough new demand to soak it up. These factors exert consistent pressure on prices. Although the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are trying to steer the ship, their efforts are being swamped by a wave of supply from elsewhere.
Global crude production is set to jump by another 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, reaching a staggering 108.7 million, with the lion's share coming from nations outside the alliance. The United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina are leading this charge. Such a hike sets the stage for a potential supply glut of 3.7–4.25 million bpd in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026 alone.
On the flip side, demand is losing steam. It is expected to climb by only 930,000 bpd in the near term to 104.98 million—a pace barely above last year's 850,000 bpd expansion. Why is demand tapping on the brakes? The world is gradually shifting gears—electric vehicles are becoming more common, while major consumers like China and developed countries within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development aren't using much. The remaining growth is concentrated primarily in non-OECD regions.
OPEC+ is now trying to hold the line by keeping official output steady. But here's a catch: the group is maintaining its formal production ceiling, yet it is methodically restoring barrels from voluntary cuts, letting an extra 400,000 bpd trickle back into the market each month. This softens the blow, but doesn't stop it. OPEC+ actions provide only partial support for prices, which are fundamentally outmatched by the excess fuel generated outside the bloc. Without deeper, more prolonged cuts from the cartel, the market will remain oversupplied.
The ultimate recommendation is to sell Brent crude. Lock in profits at $65.50. Place Stop Loss at $66.40.
Calculate your open position so that a potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) is limited to 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow entering a position of this size, it is better to skip the trade and wait for other market signals that meet low-risk criteria.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
