Brent crude is still trying to inch closer to its long-standing technical target of $45.00 per barrel. This level was etched onto the charts back in mid-2020, forming one of the left-behind highs on the post-COVID rally. What sets this threshold apart is that it has remained untouched—a price gap, or "unfinished business", that the market now seems compelled to close.
From a fundamental standpoint, the slide is driven by a growing consensus: a significant supply surplus seen now is anticipated to hang over quotes for the next 6 to 18 months.
The technical roadmap from here looks something like this: the first pit stop for fuel is a descent to the $62.50 support. Then, traders will catch their breath—this is a period of flat consolidation, potentially bounded by $64.40 on the upper side. Next, they might witness a leg down. Once energy gathers in this range, there will be a breakout to the downside toward the critical $59.00 support zone. Keep in mind that the final gate is a clear breach below $59.00, which would open the door to achieving the primary objective of $45.00.
When weighing the probabilities of the journey to $45.00, the move toward $62.50 stands out as the most likely next step. This pitch perfectly aligns with the medium-term bearish trajectory and the short-term need for a pause to build momentum in the $62.50–$64.40 range.
The ultimate recommendation is to sell Brent crude. Lock in profits at $62.50. Place Stop Loss at $66.80.
Calculate your open position so that a potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) is limited to 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow entering a position of this size, it is better to skip the trade and wait for other market signals that meet low-risk criteria.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
