The immediate outlook for Brent crude presents a fascinating technical duel, with two distinct price targets defining the battlefield: one positioned above the current $65.90 and another one anchored below, at $61.30. Right now, the market is almost certain to dramatically retest both of these frontiers. The true suspense lies in the tempo—how swiftly will these thresholds be challenged?
Nevertheless, broader macroeconomic winds are blowing decisively in one direction: down. The consensus among analysts for 2026 echoes this sentiment, projecting a slide in Brent prices to $55–$62 per barrel. But what is the root of such pessimism? It is a looming tidal wave of supply that threatens to drown demand.
Key catalysts shaping the forecast are:
Anticipated market flooding. The primary anchor on prices is the stark expectation that global production will swamp consumption. As a matter of fact, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has already sounded the alarm, forecasting a potential surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day—a formidable tide to overcome.
Non-OPEC+ surge. Growth engines like the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina are set to flood the market, operating outside the traditional OPEC+ alliance's restraint.
OPEC shifting policy. While the cartel formally maintains its production cuts, the dam is showing some leaks. Behind the scenes, members like Iraq, Kazakhstan, and the UAE are gradually relaxing their quotas and boosting output, quietly diluting their efforts to add fuel to the worldwide arena.
Geopolitical wildcard. The risk landscape is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, easing tensions, such as the prospective return of Venezuelan oil to the global market under US oversight, would pour more fuel on the output fire, thus pressuring quotes. Conversely, any sudden escalation of conflict may cause a short-term price spike, even though such rallies are likely to be fleeting against the overwhelming supply backdrop.
Given this stacked deck, the strategic play leans toward selling Brent crude into strength. Look to initiate a short position on oil only after a definitive retest of the $65.90 resistance. Otherwise, if prices drop straight through the $61.30 support, abandon the entire trading recommendation and do not enter any deals.
The overall recommendation is to sell Brent crude down to $65.90. Place Take Profit at $61.30. Set Stop Loss at $67.90.
Calculate your open position so that a potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) is limited to 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow entering a position of this size, it is better to skip the trade and wait for other market signals that meet low-risk criteria.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
