Brent crude stabilizes as geopolitical premium fades away

On Friday morning, Brent crude is holding steady near $68 per barrel, finding its footing after a recent slide driven by dissipating geopolitical heat. The key catalyst was the confirmation of US-Iran talks in Oman, which quelled fears of military conflict and eased worries over potential supply disruptions from a major Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) producer.

The market wasted no time reacting, selling off sharply once Tehran formally agreed to sit down with Washington. This move effectively dispelled the specter of an imminent march to war, a fear that had previously propped up prices above $70—their six-month high. Consequently, the geopolitical risk premium has deflated by more than 3% since its peak in January, when regional tensions were at their zenith.

Yet, the diplomatic path ahead is still on thin ice. A major sticking point looms: Iran wants talks strictly confined to the nuclear program, while the United States insists that its missile arsenal must be part of the deal. With the White House being openly skeptical about the meeting's outcome, a layer of unresolved strain continues to simmer beneath quotes.

On the supply side, signals of abundance are hard to ignore. Saudi Arabia has just slashed prices for its flagship oil sold to Asia to the lowest level since late 2020—a clear nod to a well-stocked market. Meanwhile, discounts on Russian fuel bound for China have ballooned to a record $9 per barrel as bears scramble to compensate for waning Indian demand following New Delhi's new trade agreement with Washington.

From a technical standpoint, Brent crude is attempting a hesitant rebound in early Friday trading. In particular, the Stochastic Indicator shows a bullish crossover in the neutral zone, reflecting a mild pickup in buying interest. Coming the same way, the Chaikin Oscillator, while still positive, is losing altitude. Such dynamics reveal that although capital is still flowing in, bullish momentum is running out of breath after its recent sprint.

Feel free to use the following blueprint as your primary guide for trading: 

Sell Brent crude at the current price. Lock in profits at $65.00. Place Stop loss at $70.50.

This forecast holds true from February 6 till February 13, 2026.