Brent crude selloff targets $65.00

Brent crude is sketching a concerning technical picture on the hourly chart, indicating a potential downward break below the critical $67.15 support. Another previously established "shelf" pattern with a bottom at $67.70 is embedded within the larger formation, creating a layered setup. The market appears to be confirming the underlying downtrend as oil prices probe the base, which has already been breached once.

Meanwhile, the fundamental backdrop for fuel offers little relief to bulls. Forecasts are weighed down by oversupply expectations in early 2026, though intermittent volatility is likely to come into play. Major investment banks and agencies—the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan—see an average price range for oil of $56–$63 per barrel. In a more pessimistic scenario driven by critical overproduction, a slide toward $30–$40 is not off the table.

Key drivers of the bearish thesis:

1. Mounting supply glut. Both the IEA and EIA anticipate that non-OPEC+ output, led by the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana, will outpace demand growth. The projected surplus could reach 3.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026.

2. OPEC+ wildcard. All eyes are now on the alliance's strategy. Investors are focused on whether OPEC+ is about to roll back its output cuts and gradually return volumes to the market. Any signal of a production ramp-up would add pressure to quotes.

3. Geopolitical sparks and sanctions. Flashpoints from Venezuela to Iran act as a sporadic circuit breaker, introducing fleeting risk premiums across the nations.

4. Two-speed demand picture. The future of consumption is a split screen: roaring growth in China and India (non-OECD countries), against a backdrop of flat or fading demand in the developed world.

The ultimate recommendation is to sell Brent crude. Place Take Profit at $65.00. Set Stop Loss at $69.00.

Calculate your open position so that a potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) is limited to 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow entering a position of this size, it is better to skip the trade and wait for other market signals that meet low-risk criteria.