The oil market continues to grapple with a significant global supply-demand imbalance. The burning surplus issue keeps weighing on prices, with major financial institutions forecasting an average range of $55–$62 per barrel.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects Brent crude to hold around $58 in 2026. Quotes are expected to gradually decline throughout the year—from $64 in the first quarter (Q1) to $54 in the fourth quarter (Q4).
The EIA’s outlook is rooted in the ongoing oversupply issue. In 2026, global production levels are anticipated to increase, while demand is likely to lag behind.
Brent’s quarterly dynamic, pressured by rising commercial oil reserves, could unfold as follows:
Q1: $64 per barrel—supported by increased seasonal consumption and remaining risks of supply disruptions.
Q2: $60 per barrel—as demand typically cools after winter is over.
Q3: $56 per barrel—as new production capacities enter the oil market.
Q4: $54 per barrel—when the supply glut is expected to peak.
The EIA also highlights three key headwinds for Brent prices:
Increased production from non-OPEC+ countries. The US, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada are anticipated to drive this growth, adding 1.4–1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) to global output—fully offsetting the projected rise in consumption.
Weak oil demand. An energy transition and lower consumption in China are likely to curb demand growth to 1 million bpd, a notable drop compared to recent years.
OPEC+ spare capacity. A large volume of “mothballed” production in OPEC+ nations acts as a psychological ceiling for prices. It’s clear that if quotes go up, the alliance will simply bring some of those barrels back to the market.
Reuters poll. A consensus of 34 analysts surveyed by Reuters reveals an average price of Brent crude of $61.27 this year, with WTI expected to hit $58.15.
The overall recommendation is to sell Brent oil from $69.0. Profits should be taken at the level of $65.0. Stop Loss could be set at $71.0.
The volume of the open position should be calculated so that the potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) does not exceed 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow opening a position of this size, it is better to avoid entering the market on this signal and wait for other trade options that meet low-risk criteria.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
