Selling Brent crude as it climbs to $73.0

This week (February 16–22, 2026), the geopolitical landscape between Washington and Tehran is sending mixed signals to oil markets. While the US and Iran show their military strength, diplomatic back channels remain busy—a classic "talk and build" standoff that keeps traders on edge.

In fact, the clock is currently ticking away. The odds of an American strike taking place in the Islamic Republic before May are staggering, ranging from 60% to 90%, thus reflecting deep investor uncertainty. Unlike past telling blows, media reports suggest that a new campaign would last weeks with regime change as the stated goal. The White House keeps this threat alive: the military option stays "on the table" unless diplomacy delivers fast.

For now, geopolitical jitters are the undisputed engine of Brent pricing, propping the benchmark comfortably above $70. 

Still, there is one more thing to consider as the Strait of Hormuz hangs in the balance. Iran's military drills and explicit threat of a full blockade have brought this waterway front and center. The numbers tell the story: 30%+ of global seaborne oil passes through this narrow corridor. That's why any escalation could send Brent on a rocket ride to $75–$90 per barrel. Yet, the downside scenario is equally dramatic. A diplomatic thaw would likely send quotes sliding toward $58–$60 as supply glut fears resurface.

With two wildly different outcomes being in play, a balanced tactical response makes sense. If the fuel powers through the $73.0 resistance, consider positioning for a mean reversion trade, targeting a retracement back to the $70.0 level. 

The ultimate recommendation is to sell Brent crude when prices hit $73 per barrel. Lock in profits at $70.0. Place Stop Loss at $75.0.

Calculate your open position so that a potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) is limited to 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow entering a position of this size, it is better to skip the trade and wait for other market signals that meet low-risk criteria.