Brent's run loses steam as Russian crude reenters market

Brent crude keeps climbing, now trading at $84 per barrel. Prices have jumped by over 10% since last week, and there is one clear culprit: shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has essentially ground to a halt. What started as another geopolitical flare-up has quickly become the main story for fuel. 

The supply-side fallout is no longer theoretical. Iraq has been forced to pull 1.5 million barrels per day off the market. Saudi Arabia is currently attempting to reroute exports through the Yanbu pipeline, yet its capacity maxes out at roughly 2 million bpd—well short of what the kingdom normally ships. The math is simple: the exits aren't wide enough to handle the traffic.

That said, it isn't all bad news for bulls. American crude inventories posted a surprise build this week. In the meantime, Indian refineries are now aggressively pivoting toward Russian oil sitting on floating storage. Moscow has also made it clear that it stands ready to boost shipments, eager to claim the market share lost by others. 

This is where it gets tricky. The longer the Strait remains off-limits, the greater the risk of permanent damage to critical infrastructure—a scenario that could lock in higher prices for months. But here's the twist: despite the panic, there is no actual shortage of oil across the globe. Inventories are ample, and supply is lurking in the wings. In other words, what we are witnessing now is a fear rally, not a genuine supply crisis—at least not yet.

From a technical standpoint, charts look strong, though a little tired. Brent crude tagged a local peak at $86.59, backed by volume spikes that typically confirm trend strength. However, the Chaikin Oscillator isn't playing along. Instead of rising, it is moving sideways, refusing to validate the latest leg up. This kind of divergence suggests capital inflows are stalling at current levels, raising the odds of a pause—or even a pullback—in the near term.

The following strategy may come into play for your trading:

Sell Brent crude at current levels. Place Take profit at $77.80. Set Stop loss at $87.90.

This forecast holds true from March 6 till March 13, 2026.