Investing in Brent crude with $107.00 in sight if sides fail to reach peace agreement

Brent crude is currently trading near $95.30 per barrel. In recent days, rising expectations of a new round of peace talks between the United States and Iran have become the force moving the market. The fog of uncertainty surrounding the future negotiations keeps volatility at extreme levels.

The decline in oil prices at the start of the week was not driven by improvements in the geopolitical climate but rather by traders’ reactions to relentless diplomatic efforts. Despite all attempts, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked: on Monday,only three ships passed through the route in a twelve-hour period. This gap between market expectations and the brutal reality creates the potential for a drastic risk reassessment if peace talks fail.

Since late February, the world has lost 500 million barrels of oil supply, with countries of the Persian Gulf lacking 8 million barrels per day. Citi experts believe that if current restrictions hold for another month, the energy market could be deprived of 1.3 billion barrels. Under this scenario, crude prices might jump to $110.

Meanwhile, the US-Iran negotiation process appears to be hanging by a thread. The two-week ceasefire is set to expire on Wednesday. According to US President Donald Trump, an extension is unlikely. Tehran, for its part, seems reluctant to engage in peace talks under pressure. The collapse of negotiations—or the end of the 14-day truce without an agreement—could bring the risk premium back in the blink of an eye. What’s more concerning is that the positive scenario has been priced in by the market. The same cannot be said for the negative one.

Let’s turn to the technical side. As of April 21, 2026, the daily chart shows Brent oil attempting to find its footing after Monday’s drop. The Chaikin Oscillator, which has been rising since April 15, remains in negative territory but signals bullish divergence. This is a sign of sellers’ exhaustion and potential accumulation.

Consider the following trading strategy:

Buy Brent crude at the current price, with Take profit at $107.00 and Stop loss at $87.50.

The forecast is valid from April 21 till April 28, 2026.