Brent crude may extend its climb to $115.30 as US driving season kicks off

The daily Brent chart for May 12, 2026, reveals a market that is catching its breath after a local correction. This morning's modest green candle speaks to uncertainty, yet its placement suggests that buyers are circling back after the recent dip, and longs are still in play. 

To begin with, Fibonacci retracement levels, drawn from the April 14 low at $87.27 to the April 30 peak at $120.48, serve as the market's compass. On Friday, the slide hit the 50% mark at $103.875, but bulls quickly stepped in to offset these losses. A push back above the 38.2% mark ($107.79) and a firm hold there would signal renewed strength. For a true reversal to take hold, however, quotes need to break through the 23.6% level ($112.64) and consolidate above it.

Turning to momentum, the Alligator indicator paints a generally bullish picture, though with some caveats. Its Jaws ($106.69) and Teeth ($108.56) are both below the current price, thus keeping the technical bias positive. But here's the catch: they are converging at $109.25—a telltale sign that trend momentum is fading. Consequently, Brent crude needs to recharge before it can make a decisive move in either direction.

The Money Flow Index (MFI) adds another layer to the puzzle. Alternating bar colors in recent sessions are classic consolidation chatter. The blue bar on May 11 revealed a lack of institutional support during the sell-off. Today's sluggish green candle suggests that bears are running out of steam, though bulls haven't taken the wheel yet.

On the fundamental front, oil still has a sturdy floor beneath it. President Trump's recent comments about the deadlocked peace talks cast doubt on a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This supply threat is magnified by the fast‑approaching US driving season, with gasoline stockpiles scraping bottom. Such a combination keeps a geopolitical risk premium firmly baked into prices, propping up the bullish narrative.

For those looking to take action, the trading plan is given down below:

Buy Brent crude at the current price ($109.60). Place Take profit 1 at $112.50 and Take profit 2 at $115.30. Set Stop loss at $104.00.

This forecast holds true from May 12 till May 19, 2026.