Brent crude maintains upside potential despite sellers’ resistance

Following a plunge on May 20, Brent prices entered a consolidation phase. However, selling pressure is waning closer to the key support zone between $105 and $104.5. After falling from $120.31, the asset has been trading sideways. Recent sessions suggest that bearish momentum is weakening. Volatility is getting less intense, leaving sellers with insufficient strength to push prices below local lows.

The daily chart remains moderately bearish, but the current impulse appears to be fading. A red candle on May 20 confirmed the market’s reluctance to break above $111–$112. In the following session, however, we witnessed an energetic tug-of-war between buyers and sellers near the $105–$106 range. This candle with long shadows and a small body, accompanied by elevated volume, points to a shift in market positions and the presence of demand at the lower part of the channel. Despite their efforts, bears could not settle below $103.

Momentum indicators align with this picture. The Chaikin Oscillator remains in the positive zone, even after retreating from May’s peaks. What does this mean? Simply put, buying momentum is weakening, but the market is avoiding a full-scale capital withdrawal. The Stochastic Indicator (%K=22, %D=38) is now generating a bearish signal and slowly approaching oversold territory, although it stays away from extreme levels. This, in turn, limits a further decline and raises the probability of a technical rebound.

The fundamental landscape is quite favorable for fuel. Supply disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, record drawdowns from global crude inventories, and the burning physical deficit issue are all currently supporting Brent prices—even as US‑Iran peace talks continue. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that the market could enter a dangerous red zone this summer, making it more likely that oil will remain elevated in the medium term.

Consider the trading strategy down below:

Buy Brent crude at the current price ($106.25). Place Take profit at $113.00. Set Stop loss at $102.00.

This forecast remains relevant between May 22 and May 29, 2026.