Purchasing Brent crude amid global energy deficit

The latest reports from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) were key events for the Brent crude market this week. According to these data, the global supply deficit driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remains acute.

OPEC lowered its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2026. The group now expects an increase of 1.17 million barrels per day (bpd), down from a previous estimate of 1.38 million bpd. This change was triggered by a significant surge in crude prices, general economic uncertainty, and aggressive energy-saving measures in the Pacific and European regions.

The IEA presented an even more conservative outlook for 2026, projecting a decline in global oil demand of 420,000 bpd to 104 million bpd. The steepest drop—by 2.4–2.5 million bpd—is expected in the second quarter (Q2). At the same time, supply is predicted to plunge by 3.9 million bpd. As a result, the world is likely to face an average annual deficit of approximately 1.78 million bpd, despite the possibility of a partial resumption of transport flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Given the OPEC and IEA data, the burning shortage issue is not going away anytime soon, providing solid fundamental support for Brent prices to sit comfortably above $100 per barrel. That said, the supply-demand balance remains highly sensitive to the current state of energy delivery routes, as geopolitical factors continue to play the leading role in oil's rally.

The ultimate recommendation is to buy Brent crude at the current price, targeting $115 per barrel within a couple of weeks. To mitigate the risk of adverse market movements, place a Stop Loss order slightly below the support level, at around $107.