Brent prices were stuck in a flat trend for the past week. The reason? It’s the same old US-Iran peace talks and market concerns about a swift resolution to the Middle East conflict. Another factor that influenced quotes was the suspension of oil loading at a terminal in Oman after a drone attack. This incident has once again heightened fears about stability in the region.
At the same time, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decline in US crude inventories due to strong export figures and active refining—one more tailwind for prices. On the flip side, we have the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) with their intention to boost production targets by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July. The group creates a visible bump in the rally road, but the market continues to look past it, focusing on supply disruptions.
OPEC has maintained its global oil demand outlook for 2026 at around 1.2 million bpd, seeing no reason to revise current consumption levels. However, the combination of expensive fuel, weakness in some economic segments, and overall uncertainty could throw a wrench into Brent’s rally.
In general, the fundamental picture remains moderately bullish, as does the technical setup. After reaching the lower boundary of the flat channel, quotes have begun an upward move, with $102.00 per barrel in sight.
The final recommendation:
— Buy Brent crude at the current price, aiming for $102.00 within one week.
— Place a Stop Loss order at $95.80, just below support, to protect against the risk of the market moving in the opposite direction.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
