In early October, Brent prices are hovering around $101 per barrel. Following a 14% gain in September, crude continues to hold above the psychologically important $100 level. What is the oil market’s key pillar of support? The same old geopolitical jitters in the Middle East. Negotiations between the United States and Iran have yet to result in a sustainable agreement. Therefore, supplies through the Persian Gulf remain limited despite a gradual recovery.
Prices are also underpinned by the ongoing shortage of petroleum products. This week, China temporarily restricted exports of gasoline and diesel fuel, making the situation even more intense. Reports of a strengthened US military presence in the region are pushing geopolitical premiums higher. Where does this leave us? The market continues to price in an elevated risk of fresh supply disruptions, which prevents Brent from sliding below $100.
From a technical standpoint, crude entered a correction period after reaching a local peak of $106.15 per barrel. Solid support at $95 has kept quotes from falling two times. The latest test of this threshold triggered an upward movement. Oil is now trading at around $101, gradually returning to the top of the established range. The current technical setup suggests recovering bullish momentum, with a possible target of $106.
The overall recommendation is to buy Brent crude at the current price of $101 per barrel, aiming for $106 within a couple of weeks. To mitigate the risk of adverse market movements, place a Stop Loss order at $95.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
