Buy Brent crude with $106.15 in view

At the moment, Brent prices are flying near $103 per barrel, staying elevated amid unrelenting geopolitical jitters in the Middle East. What else is pushing oil higher? A global fuel deficit, driven by ongoing supply disruptions from Persian Gulf countries.

The Strait of Hormuz’s tricky situation is the energy market’s key catalyst. Despite news of a partial recovery in crude deliveries, flows remain well below pre-conflict levels. To make matters worse, Iran has recently intensified its strikes on commercial tankers. Along with the new attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure, this atmosphere raises concerns over another wave of export issues. These risks prevent a full-fledged recovery of supply chains and keep geopolitical premiums elevated.

Let’s also take a look at the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). According to the data, by the end of September, global oil inventories fell by 509 million barrels compared to pre-conflict levels. Furthermore, the organization expects a supply deficit to persist until late 2026, despite a gradual output recovery by certain producers. This indicates that the global crude market continues to face significant supply-side constraints.

The latest US inventory figures also provided a positive signal. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), commercial oil stocks plunged by 8.6 million barrels over the week—a decline significantly sharper than analysts anticipated. This trend points to continued tightness in the supply-demand balance and provides additional support for crude prices.

So, the persistent supply deficit, shrinking global inventories, and the lack of a full normalization of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz create favorable conditions for further gains in Brent. As long as the situation in the Middle East remains tense and oil supply stays constrained, the primary scenario remains a continued uptrend.

The overall recommendation is to buy Brent crude at the current price of $103.35 per barrel, targeting $106.15 within one month. To mitigate the risk of adverse market movements, place a Stop Loss order at $100.00.