Selling Brent crude with $70 target amid rising supply

As of July 7, 2026, Brent oil is tiptoeing higher amid renewed jitters in the Middle East. However, this increase looks extremely cautious, with prices still hovering near $72 per barrel.

The current decline in volatility—confirmed by the Average True Range (ATR)—points to traders’ uncertainty. Following a surge triggered by the Strait of Hormuz crisis, the indicator appears to be gradually returning to their long-term averages. While the ATR drop alone does not reveal the direction of a future breakout, the context of the pronounced downtrend and buyers’ failure to gain a foothold above significant levels keeps the probability of further price declines high.

At the same time, the Chaikin Oscillator suggests that bulls are gathering near $70 per barrel. For now, however, the indicator sits below the zero line, meaning that buyers have yet to seize the initiative. So, a broader downtrend remains intact. This signal should be treated as a note of caution rather than a turning point.

The fundamental picture is shaped by several multi-directional factors, but the risk of oversupply stands out as the loudest concern. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has already decided to boost production in August. The UAE has increased its output to peak levels not seen since 2020. Saudi Aramco has recently dropped its official selling prices to Asia, reflecting a wild competition for consumers and the weakness of real demand. On the flip side, a long-awaited recovery in export flows through the strategic waterway appears to be taking more time than expected. The oil market also draws support from the risk of escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.

Given reduced volatility and fundamental signals pointing to oversupply, the most probable scenario for the coming week is a potential breakout below the consolidation zone.

Pay attention to the following trading strategy:

Sell Brent crude at the current price of $72.80. Place Take Profit at $70.00. Set Stop Loss at $74.50.

This forecast remains relevant between July 7 and July 14, 2026.