Sell Brent crude with $78 target as post-rally correction looms

Today, Brent crude is on a tear, hitting $84.98 per barrel and marking its best level in four weeks. What triggered this? A new flare-up between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz that has reignited supply fears and shoved a substantial risk premium back into the price. 

As if that weren't enough, global oil inventories are currently bleeding dry. Between March and May, stockpiles dropped by a staggering 360 million barrels, while American storage facilities sank to multi-decade lows. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is now at levels not seen since 1983, leaving the market without a safety net against further supply shocks. 

Adding to the squeeze, Russian diesel export restrictions are squeezing European and US distillate inventories below their five-year averages, pushing fuel prices higher and keeping crude demand humming. 

On the charts, Brent is flexing its muscles, trading near session peaks at around $84.92, with bullish momentum staying firmly intact after a spectacular rebound from its recent bottom near $70.16. The Chaikin Oscillator is climbing steadily, revealing that buying pressure is alive and well. The Stochastic Indicator, however, is creeping toward overbought territory—a clear warning that the rally may be due for a breather. 

With prices catapulting by more than 10% in just one week, the allure of profit‑taking is growing. The initial shock impulse is fading, and as oscillators flash overbought signals, the odds of a pullback are stacking up. Investors have already factored in a chunky geopolitical premium—and any sign of de‑escalation could send quotes tumbling.

For those ready to get in, pay attention to the trading plan down below:

Sell Brent crude at $84.00–$85.00. Place Take profit at $78.00. Set Stop loss at $88.60.

This forecast is valid from July 14 till July 21, 2026.