Brent crude is currently trading at around $93.75 per barrel, extending its relentless rally that kicked off in early July. The conflict in the Middle East is still at the forefront. Indeed, flare-ups have markets on edge as they price in the risk of instability spilling over into other critical supply routes. Investors are watching every headline, knowing that a single escalation could send quotes soaring even higher.
But it's not just geopolitics. Adding fuel to the fire, Kazakhstan's oil exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal in the Black Sea came to an abrupt halt, pulling roughly 2% of worldwide daily production off the table. This is no small disruption—it is a genuine shock. The three-month Brent spread has since widened to $9.26 per barrel, a loud signal of acute tightness. Meanwhile, US industrial inventories may have ticked up, though the strategic reserve is scraping levels not seen since 1983. What's more, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), commercial stockpiles across the globe are dwindling fast, leaving the market without a safety net.
Demand, on the other hand, is showing cracks. Chinese imports have hit a ten-year low, diesel consumption is softening in Europe and Asia, and the World Bank is projecting global growth of just 1.3%. Yet, for now, these concerns are being drowned out by a panic-driven supply shortage due to real-world disruptions. The proof is in the numbers: record refining margins and a staggering 65% surge in diesel prices since the conflict began show that traders are obsessed with securing physical barrels, not fretting over a recession.
As of press time, Brent crude is hovering near $93.75, up sharply from the July low of $70.16. Volatility, however, remains elevated, with Bollinger Bands widening to reflect the market's jitters. On a more encouraging note, the Chaikin Oscillator is deeply in positive territory and climbing, signaling that buyers are firmly in control and volumes continue to flood in on every move higher.
With this setup in mind, here is the trading plan:
Buy Brent crude at approximately $93.75 per barrel. Place Take profit at $101.30. Set Stop loss at $88.80.
This forecast holds true from July 24 till July 31, 2026.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
