Selling Brent crude as US-Iran diplomacy resumes

Last week was a wild run for Brent crude. Prices surged past $95 per barrel as markets braced for the worst—supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. But then came the diplomatic twist. Talks resumed, tensions eased, and oil tumbled back down to $85. However, don't celebrate just yet: the geopolitical premium is alive and well. Traffic through the waterway is still hobbled, Red Sea risks linger, and any hiccup in talks could send quotes toward triple digits ($95–$100). In short, the threat hasn't vanished—it's simply on pause. 

That said, the supply-and-demand outlook is more sobering. EIA data shows a 2-million-barrel buildup in American commercial crude inventories last week, with gasoline (+0.8 million) and distillate (+1.4 million) stocks also rising. Adding to the gloom, OPEC cut its global oil demand growth forecast for the third consecutive month, bringing it down to just 780,000 barrels per day. Asian consumption could weaken further after the recent fuel surge. On a more positive note, the return of shipments via Russia's Black Sea terminal and the restoration of Kazakhstan's export infrastructure have eased immediate shortage fears. Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration projects a substantial inventory build in Q4, which could cap prices in the medium term.

Technically, the picture is clear: Brent crude has broken below the key $89 support and is now trading beneath it. The path ahead points lower, with $80 as the next downside target.

The ultimate recommendation is to sell Brent crude at the current price ($85), aiming to reach $80 per barrel within one week. To keep risk in check, place a Stop Loss order at $89.