Brent crude has once again pushed toward $90 per barrel, driven by a sharp escalation in the Middle East. Over the past week, oil prices have surged by about 6.5%, adding another 2% on Monday alone. Negotiations between the United States and Iran have recently hit a brick wall, with both sides refusing to extend the temporary ceasefire. Meanwhile, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly halted: during the weekend, tanker transits collapsed to a fraction of what they had been just seven days ago. This is a powerful tailwind for fuel that keeps bulls firmly in control.
Yet, not all signals point higher. Other fundamental factors continue to weigh on the market, limiting the potential for sustained gains. OPEC has already downgraded its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026, now projecting only 580,000 barrels per day. Concurrently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects worldwide consumption to decline by 1.6 million bpd. Adding to the gloom, American crude inventories swelled by 17.4 million barrels—the fastest weekly build in over three years. In the near term, these bearish cues may take a backseat to supply disruptions and escalating conflict. However, they are a reminder that the fundamental picture is far from being rosy.
On the technical front, Brent has broken above the $88 resistance and is now consolidating near the psychologically significant $90 threshold. This is a critical juncture. A firm hold above this level would tip the scales in favor of buyers and could open the door to the next target, i.e., $95 per barrel.
The final recommendation:
— Buy Brent crude at the current price ($89.70), aiming to reach $95.00 within two weeks.
— To keep risk in check, place a Stop Loss order at $85.00.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
