Go long on Brent crude up to $95

Brent crude is currently trading at $87.50 per barrel. In fact, the commodity has plenty of room to recover after the recent sell-off. Over the past week, oil shed about 5%, as markets breathed a sigh of relief over the resumption of talks between Iran and Oman regarding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the underlying supply picture is still tight. According to Kpler, fuel flows through this narrow channel averaged 2.3 million barrels per day in August, which is way below pre‑conflict levels. So, even if diplomacy gains some traction, it won't automatically lead to a full-scale supply revival. In other words, the geopolitical risk premium is far from being gone.

Adding further fuel to the bullish case is the deteriorating relationship between Washington and Tehran. President Donald Trump has essentially slammed the door on returning to the previous ceasefire framework, while US officials have made it clear that no direct negotiations are on the table right now. Iran isn't backing down either. The country is tying the complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to the lifting of sanctions and an end to the port blockade. A quick breakthrough, therefore, seems to be unlikely.

The demand side of the equation is also lending a hand. The latest US inventory data showed commercial crude stockpiles rising by just 95,000 barrels, whereas the market had braced for a build closer to 600,000 barrels. This suggests that domestic energy consumption remains surprisingly resilient, providing support for prices.

On the technical front, oil has recently defended the $84.35 support with conviction and is now grinding higher. The next upside target to watch is $95.00 per barrel—a level not visited in nearly two months.

The final recommendation:

— Buy Brent crude at the current price ($87.60), aiming to reach $95.00 within two weeks.

— To keep risk in check if the market moves against us, place a Stop Loss order at $84.35 per barrel.