As of press time, Brent crude is trading near $91.66 per barrel, coming close to its July 23 peak of $95.39. The primary catalyst behind the recent fluctuations has been the persistent uncertainty surrounding the US‑Iran standoff. With the interim agreement expiring this week and no indication that either side is willing to resume negotiations, the geopolitical risk premium remains firmly embedded in oil prices. In short, investors are anticipating the worst-case scenario.
Adding to the jitters, Washington announced plans to impose tougher economic measures against Tehran. A Treasury Department official described the forthcoming sanctions as the hardest in history—a statement that is sending shockwaves through energy markets and fueling fears of a deeper supply crunch in the Middle East.
The story is further complicated by declining exports from western Russian ports, driven by lingering tensions in Eastern Europe. At the same time, a notable shift in crude flows—with both India and China pivoting toward Russian oil—is tightening the supply picture in Asia. This is a classic shock in the making.
The state of American strategic petroleum reserves is another wildcard worth watching. They have fallen to their lowest levels since the early 1980s, following a series of emergency releases. This dwindling buffer limits Washington's ability to respond effectively to sudden price spikes, which only reinforces the market's tendency to factor in a higher risk premium. Therefore, the safety net is thinner than it has been in decades.
On the technical side, the charts align with the bullish narrative. Brent continues its steady recovery from the early August low of $77.43. The Chaikin Oscillator stays in positive territory, revealing that institutional players are accumulating positions. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 68, reflecting robust bullish momentum and edging closer to overbought conditions—though there are no signs of an imminent reversal just yet.
For those ready to make a move, here is the trading plan:
Buy Brent crude from $91.60. Place Take profit at $97.00. Set Stop loss at $87.00.
This forecast holds true from August 21 till August 28, 2026.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
