In recent days, oil succeeded in getting higher than the rectangle, which was drawn earlier, and in forming a rising trend. The growth targets that were set last time were almost achieved, this forecast is to be updated.
The news background for the oil market did not change a lot. The removal of restrictions in Chinese economy continues to be the main driver of the quotations growth.
China has significantly increased its quotas on crude oil imports for 2022. The country is preparing for an increase in production by Chinese refineries and an increase in oil demand after the cancellation of the Covid Zero policy. Total quotas for this year increased by 20% over the same period of the previous year.
On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs said that OPEC's ability to control prices without causing significant damage to demand will limit the risks of decreasing oil prices for 2023.
Goldman forecasts an increase in global oil demand by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2023, which would cause a market deficit in the second half of the year and would increase prices for oil up to $105 per barrel by the fourth quarter.
Goldman Sachs also confirms the positive forecast for the oil market.
Despite the record growth of oil reserves in the U.S., the raw commodities do not react much to this negative trend. According to the API, the oil reserves in the U.S. jumped by 14.9 million barrels last week. Gasoline and distillate reserves also increased by 1.8 million and 1.1 million barrels, respectively. The API estimates may be very different from the official figures which will be published today.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report that it expects global consumption of liquid fuels such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel to reach an all-time high in 2024.
It can be seen that the forecasts of the energy agencies also remain positive, which gives an opportunity for the continuation of oil growth.
It was written in the beginning that according to the technical analysis the oil prices have formed an uptrend. At the moment it is on its lower boundary. The growth target is set at the level of the current local highs at 81.2. The stop-loss will be a bit lower than the current uptrend at 78.5.
Growth of Brent crude oil:
Take profit – $81,2
Stop-loss – $78,5
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
