Brent sell

Oil may correct despite geopolitical risks

09 October 2023 174
Oil may correct despite geopolitical risks

Oil prices rose sharply after the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East this weekend. The event was unexpected for the energy market.


Oil prices surged by more than $4 per barrel at the beginning of Asian trading. 

The sharp rise of oil prices reversed the downward trend of the last week, during which Brent had fallen in price by about 11%, while the price of WTI decreased by more than 8%. The fall in price occurred amid concerns about high interest rates and their impact on global demand. 

According to analysts at ANZ Bank, the rise of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is to put pressure on oil prices. There is also a probability of higher volatility in the market.

According to reports, on Friday, Saudi officials told the White House that they are prepared to increase oil production next year as part of a deal previously proposed by Israel.

The growth in Saudi production could help ease the supply shortage after months of cuts by main producers.

The current growth means only the emergence of a risk premium. At the moment, oil supply chains aren’t disrupted. Prices might fall back, because the risks of recession in the global economy remains.


One of the major oil importers resents high prices. India certainly has credibility, so the country may try to pressure OPEC+ into easing production curbs.

According to Hardeep Singh Puri, India's Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, OPEC+ supply management of the commodity market could have a negative impact on demand. As Puri states, not all economies are able to adapt to high oil prices.

The minister had earlier asked for making oil prices more affordable during a meeting with OPEC Secretary General Haisam Al-Ghais at the ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi.


According to the technical analysis, the sharp growth of oil could be accompanied by liquidation of short positions of market participants. Oil prices reached an important resistance, which has been relevant since the beginning of the year. Now there is a possible corrective movement towards $85. There is the beginning of today's rising candle. Stop-loss will be set at the growth up to the level of 88.3.


Brent oil is likely to decline:

Take profit – 85,0

Stop-loss – 88,3

This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.

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