Brent oil quotes have been in a sideways trend since mid-December, with the boundaries of $72 and $74 per barrel. Holidays and low trading activity do not contribute to a sharp change in the situation in the coming days. Nevertheless, traders can try to catch the price movement from one border of the sidewall to the other. Now oil price has more chances to reach the mark of 72 and test it than the growth.
Most analysts do not expect oil prices to rise or fall significantly in 2025. Their forecasts, as a rule, are concentrated in the range of $70–$80 per barrel. At the same time, almost the only factor in favor of price growth is the tough position of the future U.S. President Donald Trump with regard to Iran. If the export of oil from the Middle Eastern country is limited, its value on the world market will jump. However, the effect of these measures is unlikely to be long-term.
OPEC+ members, which have been unable to start easing production restrictions since the beginning of the fall, will immediately try to take advantage of any increase in oil prices. In addition, countries outside the organization also do not intend to stay on the sidelines and continue to increase production capacity. In the absence of a strong growth in demand for oil, this threatens to result in a surplus and a drop in prices to about $65.
On the oil consumption side, there are no signs of improvement so far. According to the latest data from Kpler, China's imports of oil from the United States fell by 46% to 81.9 million barrels in 2024. Demand for oil is falling amid slowing economic growth in the country, as well as the increasing use of electric cars and liquefied natural gas as a source of energy. China's total oil purchases on the global market fell by 7.2% year-on-year to 2023.
The Stochastic indicator on the daily chart of Brent oil will soon give a sell signal. The bears' short-term benchmark is the level of 72.
Consider the following trading strategy:
Sell Brent in the range of 72.8–73.2. Take profit – 72. Stop loss – 74.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
