Brent crude pressured by surplus threat and US-Iran negotiations

Brent oil prices stabilized on Friday, poised to conclude the second consecutive week with gains. The primary support for the market stemmed from the temporary de-escalation of trade relations between the US and China. However, expectations regarding a potential Iranian nuclear deal are limiting price increases.

Earlier, Brent crude lost over 2% following statements suggesting progress in negotiations between Washington and Tehran. US President Donald Trump indicated that the parties are nearing an agreement.

If restrictive measures are lifted, Iran could potentially increase exports by approximately 400,000 barrels per day, adding pressure to the supply side.

Nevertheless, Brent rose about 1% for the week, supported by the US-China agreement on a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs. This eased concerns about a slowdown in global demand and provided psychological support to the market.

Surplus expectations represent an additional downward pressure. The International Energy Agency (IEA) increased its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2025 by 380,000 barrels per day, primarily due to the easing of production restrictions by OPEC+ countries, including Saudi Arabia. The demand growth forecast was revised only slightly, by 20,000 bpd, which is contributing to investor caution.

From a technical standpoint, Brent oil is forming a "triangle" pattern indicating uncertainty on the H4 timeframe. The current price position near the upper boundary of this pattern may signal a potential decline towards support levels. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram (parameters 12, 26, 9) is below the zero line, corroborating a "bearish" sentiment.

Signal:

The short-term outlook for Brent oil suggests selling with a target mark of 59.40. 

Part of the profit should be taken near the level of 62.50. 

A stop-loss could be placed at the level of 67.90.

The bearish scenario is short-term, so a trading volume should not exceed 2% of your balance.