Brent crude shows reduced volatility on Friday, August 15, indicating a better supply-demand balance. The price is now fluctuating around $66.35 per barrel due to weak trading activity. However, there is a high downside potential, as key indices are forming bearish momentum.
The EMA(20) and EMA(50) crossover on August 8 was one of the most evident sell signals, which confirmed a downtrend. The oil price is currently located below the moving averages, reflecting ongoing pressure from bears, though in the short term the situation in the energy market remains uncertain.
At the same time, the Stochastic Oscillator (%K=48, %D=38) is in the neutral zone. The %K line is located above the %D one, highlighting bullish momentum. However, this signal is not consistent with other indicators. For instance, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) points to the downtrend and sellers’ dominance. The MACD is also declining, while the divergence between the main and signal lines is increasing. Such a convergence could signal an imminent drop in oil prices and a full downward reversal.
Fundamentally, the market focus is glued to the upcoming talks between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska. If the parties fail to reach an agreement, supplies of Russian oil could be at risk. Consequently, crude prices could rise significantly next Monday. However, experts surveyed by Bloomberg consider a significant long-term drop in oil output to be highly unlikely, capping further growth. Even if energy prices jump after the talks, this surge would be short-term and would not change the bearish trend.
The market’s reaction to approaching the nearest support at $65.00 should be in focus. If the price breaks below this level, it could continue to decline toward $62.40, which served as a strong May support. However, in case sellers fail to consolidate under $65.00, oil prices could continue to move sideways, with high market uncertainty persisting until other future macroeconomic events unfold.
Pay attention to the following trading strategy:
Sell Brent at the current price or at higher levels on Monday. Place Stop Loss at $69.00. Take Profit should be set at $62.40.
The forecast remains valid between August 15 and August 22, 2025.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
