BTCUSD will show short-term growth after falling

The US economic situation is still having a significant impact on the market. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is falling after JOLTS report release in the US. According to the data, the number of job openings unexpectedly rose by 3.8% (from 8.1 million to 7.8 million) in November 2024, exceeding the forecast by 5.2%. 

Positive momentum could be created due to Donald Trump’s statements about excessively high Fed rates and his support for the crypto community. However, the sudden increase in the number of job openings can force the Fed to refrain from rate cutting, which can affect high-risk assets including BTCUSD.  

General macroeconomic concerns and persistent inflation continue to put pressure on the crypto market. The recent increase in bond yields makes high-risk assets less attractive. Moreover, the rising MOVE index, which reflects the volatility of Treasury bonds, may indicate the possibility of a BTCUSD price drop.

In addition, the large quantity of long BTCUSD positions liquidations on the market on January 8 (amounting to $631 million) suggests that the market is overheated, and further decline is likely. The expected volatility after the inauguration of Trump can lead to significant price fluctuations, creating both growth opportunities and downside risks. 

Meanwhile, institutional interest in Bitcoin is increasing. The head of the Czech National Bank considers adding Bitcoin to bank reserves, which highlights the growing interest of institutional investors. This could be a possible driver for the cryptocurrency price.

Technically, the MACD indicator shows that the downtrend is weakening. Despite the histogram being around zero, the decline is decelerating, and the red line is starting to flatten out.

Either price consolidation before the US Presidential inauguration or a short-term rebound (unlikely a strong one) are possible in the coming days.

The release of FOMC minutes will be one of the key events that could affect the market. The minutes could provide clarity on further US monetary policy.

The nearest support level is likely to be around $91532.07. If the price goes below this level, the decline may continue. The nearest resistance level of BTCUSD is $102724.37. If bitcoin overcomes this level, it can grow to $110000 and higher.

Suggested options for trading: 

Buy BTCUSD at the current price. Place a Take Profit at the level of $99963.69 and a Stop Loss at the level of $91532.07.