EURUSD under renewed pressure from dovish Fed tone and soft eurozone data

EURUSD is on a losing streak, continuing its slide from the December 4 peak at 1.16813. The main weight dragging the pair down has been the market bracing for hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials after they deliver the widely anticipated policy easing on December 10–11. Rumor has it that the central bank is set to take a lengthy break once this next move is complete.

Such a cautious turn got a major boost from stronger-than-expected US job openings data in October, proving that the economy still has some fight left in it and giving the regulator an opportunity to remain tight-lipped. Adding another layer of complexity, political uncertainty over the upcoming Fed Chairman's appointment is complicating matters, as candidates are being questioned about their appetite for aggressive easing. This dual perspective is fueling volatility that benefits the dollar as the go-to safe-haven asset.

On the other side of the coin, the eurozone's fundamental story remains weak, offering the euro no support whatsoever. Germany, the bloc's powerhouse, is seeing its exports languish, only holding steady thanks to its intra-EU trade, while shipments to the US and China are falling off a cliff. The mood in the regional business community is bleak, with investment plans favoring America over Europe—a clear sign that structural competitiveness issues are catching up with them.

From the technical standpoint, the correction gets the green light within the pair. A bearish crossover on the Stochastic Indicator—where the %K line pierces the %D one from top to bottom—signals the downward momentum still has legs. This lines up perfectly with the Chaikin Oscillator’s negative reading, which confirms selling pressure has the upper hand. Although the Stochastic is flirting with the oversold zone, potentially setting the stage for a local bounce, the fundamentals tell a different story. With the US economy holding strong, the Fed tapping the brakes, and the eurozone's foundations looking shaky, any real upside for EURUSD is a tall order.

The following plan may come into play for your trading:

Sell EURUSD at the current price. Place Take profit at 1.15600. Set Stop loss at 1.16860.

This forecast is valid from December 10 till December 17, 2025.