The upcoming release of US gross domestic product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025—due Thursday, January 29, 2026—serves as the first major scorecard of Donald Trump's second term. This figure will be way more than a statistic: it will be a crucial barometer of America's economic health, setting the tone for monetary policy and global capital flows in the new political era.
However, the key question for traders now is how will this print move the EURUSD pair?
1. The overall guess for the report is 4,3%.
Market expectations are steeped in optimism: the consensus forecast of 4.3% year-over-year growth has essentially baked in a "Trump premium", fueled by hopes of fiscal stimulus and deregulation. Investors have already set their bar high. So here's how EURUSD may respond:
GDP > 4.3% (Bullish dollar). A beat would signal overheating momentum and likely force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a hawkish stance for a longer period of time, thus turbocharging the greenback. The pair may swiftly fall toward 1.1550.
GDP ~3.8–4.0% (Bearish dollar). Even a robust 4% growth would be seen as a failure to meet elevated expectations. The narrative would shift to concerns that trade wars and tariffs are starting to act as a drag on the US economic engine.
2. Weak data could sink the greenback.
A miss would likely set off two key dynamics:
Fed policy pivot. Markets would immediately price in accelerated rate cuts as the regulator moves to support a potentially faltering expansion. Falling US Treasury yields would strip the dollar of its interest-rate appeal.
Speculative unwind. Greenback bigwigs who "bought the rumor" and positioned themselves for a blockbuster number would face a wave of profit-taking, therefore triggering a technical sell-off in USD across the board.
3. EURUSD is primed for a breakout.
The euro is currently in a "coiled spring" position, buoyed by robust economic data from Germany. A disappointing US GDP report may be the catalyst for a decisive move.
Focus on sluggish US economic indicators. A clean breakout above the 1.1800 resistance would pave the way for a push toward the 1.1850–1.1870 zone.
Our minimum target guideline is 1.1845.
The ultimate recommendation is to buy EURUSD if American GDP data comes in below expectations. Lock in profits at 1.1845. Place Stop Loss at 1.1510.
Calculate your open position so that a potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) is limited to 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow entering a position of this size, it is better to skip the trade and wait for other market signals that meet low-risk criteria.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
