Buying EURUSD upon reaching 1.19280

Looking at the M15 and M30 timeframes, we see that the EURUSD pair is forming a horizontal line near 1.19280. If the price attempts to approach this level a few more times, the scenario will be confirmed and the probability of piercing through the threshold will surge.

Now, let’s dive deeper into the fundamental picture. The recent Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report showed the US labor market’s resilience, supporting the dollar and capping the euro’s growth. Nevertheless, the single currency still has more potential than its American counterpart due to monetary policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. While the Fed is expected to continue cutting interest rates, the ECB is likely to remain neutral.

However, the greenback should not be written off. The strong NFP report, released on February 6, demonstrated the robust state of the US economy, lowering the chances of an aggressive rate-cutting cycle by the Fed in the near term. Investors had forecast weaker figures, which could have pushed the regulator to ease monetary policy faster.

At the end of the day, the US central bank will reduce borrowing costs sooner or later. Strong US data, such as the robust NFP report in February, sometimes slow this process, but it does not change the overall picture. In the medium term, the euro has more potential to outshine the greenback.

The overall recommendation is to buy EURUSD if the pair once again climbs to 1.19280. Enter the trade near this level. Lock in profits at 1.19570. Place Stop Loss at 1.18600. Even though this position will have a potential risk-to-reward ratio of 2.5/1, there is a good chance it will close in the green and make up for any risk.

The volume of the open position should be calculated so that the potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) does not exceed 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow opening a position of this size, it is better to avoid entering the market on this signal and wait for other trade options that meet low-risk criteria.